July 3, 2013

TW wrote:

 

Stage two now. Remember, I’d warned at the start of the Arab revolts that these were at best cultural revolutions…chiefly good because the people began to see their own oppressors instead of eating fatalism and getting drunk on external demons.
 
But pigface Mursi has had it. Did you know that his whole career before being pawned off as a candidate was as head dogma enforcer in the Brotherhood? -And the stupid fuck continued to think and move that way. I’ve read a lot of interviews, etc in which he proves mentally and morally incapable of giving straight answers. Or honest ones. Just slugging blindly like a cheap bouncer at a seedy dive rumble.
 
Anyway, this is the classical evolution of a revolt: The first explosion knocks down the ruling level, but the best organized group finagles itself into power and then turns its full concentration towards stopping the revolutionary work. The times when revolts don’t end there, the people soon begin to remember their original demands and, unless they’ve been ameliorated, explode again.
 
It would take a moron to imagine the Egyptian armed forces will now grant 84 million people life bursting with liberty and joy, but remember the military was reshuffled after Mubarak fell, and we might well see an Attaturk model of state for the next five years or so, in which case most Egyptians will wind up shrugging and saying ‘This ain’t so bad.’  Back when we were looking at the first uprising, I listed some of the major commercial and industrial monopolies the military had; now I would suggest that they are much better businessmen than the Muslim Brotherhood, and that’s what the people think will define a functional economy. Although the U.S. sort-of okayed Mursi -and showed it by delivering the traditional military aid to Egypt- Sisi obviously cleared the current coup with the White House before predicting it in a public speech. Better businessmen, that’s the selling point -for everyone.
 
The annihilation of the Brotherhood in this case is decisive. I believe they are the oldest such organisation -I think Khomeni learned from their model- and being crushed this way will forever discredit that model. Again, in our previous coverage of the Arab uprisings, I said that when Iran falls it will be like the end of the Soviet Union, in that it would bury the model of an ‘Islamic Republic.’  The Islamists are the only ones who learned anything from Lenin, but the Bolshevik playbook that got them state power, and their essentially Comintern concerns, can’t ever give them sufficient resources (including, and ultimately intellectual) to survive. The Brotherhood kept alive forever by painting themselves as a good works and charities organization, and that won enough hearts if not minds enough to survive all these years until they finally won the state, after which they exposed themselves as small-bore ninnies who enjoy pissing everyone off.